🏆 PLAYOFF ODDS & SCENARIOS

November 22, 2025
Watson-Der My Towel Power Rankings

(Based on records, PF, and division race strength)

🌴 Yolanda Be Cool Division

1. Elver Galarga — 8-3 (Playoff Odds: 98%)

Why so high?

  • Best record in the league

  • 2-1 in division

  • Strong PF

  • Only needs 1 more win to mathematically lock in.

Clinching Scenarios:
✔ Win 1 of next 3 → 100% in
✔ If Danny or Ruben lose this week → odds jump to 99.9%
❌ Only scenario he misses: loses out (8-6) AND both Danny & Ruben finish 10-4 (extremely unlikely)

2. Nobodyyyy! (Danny) — 7-4 (Playoff Odds: 92%)

Why?

  • #1 PF in the league (1186)

  • Even if he loses, his PF tiebreaker is ridiculous.

Clinching Scenarios:
✔ Win 1 → basically guaranteed
✔ Even at 8-6 → gets in over 90% of time due to PF
❌ Only danger: losing 3 straight AND multiple 6–5 teams win out

3. Ooh Baby I Like It Amon-Ra (Ruben) — 7-4 (Playoff Odds: 89%)

Why?

  • 7 wins this early is strong

  • Division is stacked but he has manageable PA

Clinching Scenarios:
✔ Win 2 → automatic playoff berth
✔ Win 1 → likely gets in due to record
❌ Misses playoffs if he drops to 7-7 AND Sanchez, Marile, and Joon go on hot streaks

4. LoveHandles — 2-9 (Playoff Odds: 0%)

No path.

🧀 Royale With Cheese Division

5. Luigy Sosa’s Dandy Team — 7-4 (Playoff Odds: 87%)

Why?

  • Leading the division with a clean 3-0 record

  • Good PF

  • Division winner has guaranteed entry

Clinching Scenarios:
✔ If he wins one more → heavily favored to win the division
✔ If Marile loses once → odds jump to 95%
❌ Can miss if:

  • He goes 0–3 AND

  • Marile wins out AND

  • Amon-Ra + Danny also finish above him

6. Pinolera’s Finest (Marile) — 6-5 (Playoff Odds: 58%)

Why?

  • High PF keeps her alive

  • Favorable matchups remaining

  • But 5 losses is dangerous

Clinching Scenarios:
✔ If she reaches 8 wins, she’s 90% in
✔ If she reaches 9 wins, she’s a lock
❌ Most dangerous scenario: finishes 7-7 → could lose tiebreakers to Joon, Sanchez, or Amon-Ra

7. GoGo Bower Rangers — 4-7 (Playoff Odds: 12%)

Why?

  • Back-to-back wins helps

  • But needs to finish 7-7 AND win a PF tiebreaker

  • Very hard path

Clinching Scenarios:
✔ MUST win out (7-7)
✔ Needs Marile to lose twice AND Hugo to lose at least once
✔ Needs Danny or Ruben to collapse
❌ Any loss = eliminated

8. Action Jackson & Quadzilla — 2-9 (Playoff Odds: 0%)

No remaining path.

🍗 Dead as Fried Chicken Division

9. Mother Buccers — 7-4 (Playoff Odds: 91%)

Why?

  • Leading division

  • 1100+ PF

  • Even if he doesn’t win division, he’s wildcard material

Clinching Scenarios:
✔ Win 1 → almost a guarantee
✔ Win 2 → locks division
❌ Misses if he collapses to 7-7 AND tiebreakers fall badly

10. Kareem Pie (Joon) — 7-4 (Playoff Odds: 88%)

Why?

  • High PF

  • Recent wins

  • In best shape outside division leaders

Clinching Scenarios:
✔ Win 2 → 99% chance
✔ Win 1 → 80% chance (PF helps a ton)
❌ Misses if: finishes 7–7 AND loses PF battles to Marile and Sanchez

11. Sanchez10 — 6-5 (Playoff Odds: 51%)

Why 50/50?

  • Perfectly average PF/PA ♥️

  • Right in the middle mathematically

  • Needs a strong finish

Clinching Scenarios:
✔ Reaching 8 wins → ~75% to get in
✔ Reaching 9 wins → LOCK
❌ Most dangerous scenario:
Finishes 7–7 → way too many teams in that same range for comfort

12. Chodes Matter — 3-8 (Playoff Odds: 5%)

Technically alive, but needs:
✔ win out → 6-8
✔ AND all 6–5 and 7–4 teams fall
✔ AND favorable PF tiebreakers
Not realistic, but mathematically alive.

🔥 PLAYOFF PICTURE IF PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY

Projected Division Winners

  1. Elver Galarga (8-3)

  2. Luigy Sosa (7-4)

  3. Mother Buccers (7-4)

Projected Wild Cards

  1. Nobodyyyy! (7-4)

  2. Amon-Ra (7-4)

  3. Kareem Pie (7-4)

🔮 FINAL WAY-TOO-EARLY PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

🔥 LOCKS (80–99%)

  • Elver

  • Danny

  • Mother Buccers

  • Kareem Pie

  • Amon-Ra

  • Luigy

⚠️ ON THE BUBBLE (40–60%)

  • Marile

  • Sanchez

💀 ALMOST DONE (5–15%)

  • GoGo Bower Rangers

  • Chodes Matter

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